PLO200 prop bet - 150 BI's in 31 days - Page 8 - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

What do you guys think of this ? I think im gonna bet 6k in this pro bet getting 3-1 odds. His nickname is DonkPredator at Pokerstars.I really think this is not duable. My best month at plo 1/2 was in november where I played about ~33k hands running at 25.4 bb/100 and only made about 17k. And I was always 9 tablind. I work and travel a lot so I know he can do a hell more of volume than I did but I still think this in unduable. He is gonna do 14-16tables so I really think there is no way he can make 30k in 31 days at 1/2. What do you guys think ? Some of you have more experience in stars 1/2 game that he plays, i play exclusevily in fulltilt but I doubt there is a big diffence. Wazz and Stinger are the judges so I doubt he is gonna somehow cheat. Do you guys think its worth betting. LEts please get a good discussion going here so that I can confidentely bet here.He says he is doing this to get him motivated and all he is interested is getting the fpps to supernova I guess. He is probably a good player according to pokertableratings he is a winner and won like 100k at plo hu 5/10. I have never played and have no idea how he plays. I would also be interested in any comments of his plays from you guys. As im a regular at 1/2 and 2/4 ill be able to play in his tables if I want and I just might do that if he is getting close to the goal.

Mig posted this:
I'll point you to some mega tabler at plo 1/2 and check their winrates :

http://www.pokertableratings.com/sta...r-search/rsmig
http://www.pokertableratings.com/sta...rch/Alex333888
http://www.pokertableratings.com/sta...rch/Lars_vegas
http://www.pokertableratings.com/sta...earch/Dickkemp
http://www.pokertableratings.com/sta...earch/krmont22 (only one who has the winrate but check the other stakes and I doubt he ever played 200k hands in a month of plo 1/2)

3:1 is waaaay better than the 4:1 he was offering originally.

As for his prop bet, there is a high chance, imo, that he will actually make it to 30k. Donkpredator says he has soccer practice and can only play 4hrs per day, but that is bs as he will play as much as possible to win his bet. He is a very solid player!

I'm a loser at previous prob bets as you have to be weary of the guy making the bet since it's unlikely he will make a bet that he has a very small (1 in 3 or 4) chances of winning...

i also know what SodaPop or something close to it on stars used to put up 100BI months at plo200 somewhat regularly and he didn't grind himself to death, but just played like a champ.

150 BI is a lot though, so it may be a good bet, and it will be a great sweat nonetheless

Man, I honestly think there's no way he gets this. 15 tabling is such a bitch, he may drop a few k before he even adjusts.

Have you played with him paulee on stars ? Any stats at least on his play and style ? The loser and more agressive he is more likely his is to make the 30k because i think if he plays tag abc style I think he might get close but not make the 30k.

HAve you played with him also poolside ?

Donk Predator seems like a good player from my limited experience of playing with him (about 800 hands). I think that the prop bet is achievable but I don't care how amazing someone thinks they are at PLO - you're going to have to run seriously hot to achieve this. If he runs bad for any sizeable sample of hands - it's going to be impossible for him to complete.

So youd also bet on this ? having 3-1 odds ? Do you think he has more than 33% of chance of achieving th 150 BI ? I really agree with you on this that if he hits any kind of a bad run it will be almost impossible for him to turn around since he only has 31 days.

In theory it seems like a great bet to make, but my spidey-prop-betting-sense is going off telling me that if you make this bet you will lose.

I made a living off prop bets and neutral EV gambling for like 2 years imo so I put a lot of trust into my spidey sense.

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Ninja

Can you elaborate on this ? You really think he can easily do this ? YOu have a lot more experience than me massmultitabling, especially on stars, so you opinion will really make a diffence to me. Please share with us ur spideys senses and really evaluate this prop bet for us ? If you can

When does it start? I'm playing atm so can't really put a lot of thought/effort into looking into the bet but i'll give it a shot when my session is over.

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Ninja