I think this is one of the bigger holes in my game in both plo and plo8b. I don't bluff enough rivers. I don't think I Ever bluff them in plo8b...rarely anyway. This can only be a leak, but we often get LOTS of hangers-on and looked up Lots...esp after turn action. I do wish I could go back in time and bet the river...just to see what happens. Ah well, just hafta play more hands til this exact spot comes up again I guess.

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These are the thoughts of a monkey

On the river you have close to a free-roll bluff opportunity so I agree you should bet it.

Your position really is what screws you over in this hand, and it argues against your preflop call I guess. First of all since you know villain has AAxx your hand isn't very strong, but more importantly you have the whole table left to act behind you, including two very loose players. When they see a call in front of them you know they will be calling with all kinds of stuff. The 6 isn't very hot. Yes you'll quarter someone when the board comes 345 but that will only happen once in a blue moon.

Your argument that you will be able to outplay your opponent who has AAxx would be good if you were in LP. If you're in LP and it is folded to you, you might be able to play him HU with position. That's good. If there's a few callers in between you can play your hand for its value. Which is also good. Here, it's hard to do any of those things due to your insanely crappy position.

I'm not saying fold it, because we all hate folding A2s in any O8 game, but your reasoning is not 100% sound in my opinion and it's not an automatic call against this villain. It would be from LP, or from the blinds with additional callers, but your position here couldn't be worse.

Why isn't the preflop call automatic? It's a hand that I don't mind playing heads up against villain...a very unlikely scenario...but the hand plays Really well multiway, which is what happens most of the time at this table. I think the preflop call is only standard. True the position sucks, but the hand is too strong to consider releasing. True the 345 doesn't happen often, but add it to nut lo, nut flushes, straights etc etc. This hand can't be folded preflop for one raise.

I'm willing to admit I bollocksed up all the streets postflop which is why I posted it here, but I stand by the preflop. It's not just that I think I can to outplay villain when I'm in bad position, but this is a good multiway hand, and my call encourages good multiway action.

As for river, ya I always turn really pessimistic on rivers. If I bet, I'm NOT folding out the obvious set, and am getting quartered for lo etc. I was going thru a streak of constantly being caught in the middle against unfoldables/slowplayeds/always getting quartered...I was very results-based fearing betting the river. I've been working on it and certainly have improved. Now if I can just get that whole running-good thing going.

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These are the thoughts of a monkey

You think you're getting quartered for low a lot? I doubt it. Two things need to happen for that:

1. Someone has to have a 26
2. They have to call with it

Someone having another 26 isn't that likely, and even if they do, they may very well not call with it with an obvious wheel on the board. Some may not even realize it is the 2:nd nut low.

Many good things may happen if you bet (let's say you bet $120):

- Everyone folds. You win $170 (instead of $83.50)
- Two player calls with highs. You win $85+$60=$145 (instead of $83.50)
- One player calls with high, and someone else with 26 folds. You win $85 instead of $42.50
- One player calls with 26 and your Top Pair is good for high. You win $187.50 (instead of $83.50)

I agree that prelop is an autocall in most cases, but when your read is that UTG has a monster and your position is super bad, maybe it isn't.

Let's look at it from a check or bet perspective.

Checking will result in $0, +$42 or +$84

Betting ($120) will result in on of the following:

-$120 (someone has 35)
+$12 (you get quartered)
+$84 (split with high caller)
+$145 (two high callers)
+$170 (everyone folds)
+$185 (you quarter a low)


Then we assume that on average, a check will give you $60. Meaning that most of the time you'll get half or a quarter, and rarely ever will someone have 35.

So we subtract the $60 from the "Betting Result List" to see what the difference between betting and checking is (ie: we set checking to 0).

Final Betting Result List
-$120 (someone has 35)
-$48 (you get quartered)
+$24 (split with high caller, this now includes another 26 being folded some of the time)
+$85 (two high callers)
+$110 (everyone folds)
+$125 (you quarter a low)

If all those had an equal chance of happening, the EV of betting would be +$60 compared to checking. Also, note that the option "someone has 35" isn't adjusted to the average value of checking (+$60) since the actual value of checking when someone has 35 is 0.

Of course they don't have an equal chance of happening. If getting quartered or someone having 35 is very probable, of everyone folding is very improbable, the equity might be negative. I doubt that though.

Ya, it sure doesn't look like the 35 is out there. I pussed out in general, specifically on the river, and cost myself moneys as a result. Poker's hard enough without costing myself moneys.

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These are the thoughts of a monkey